The True bell-weather of US Presidential elections
I sometimes felt as if I were watching the psychodrama of the baby boom generation — a tale rooted in old grudges and revenge plots hatched on a handful of college campuses long ago — played out on the national stage.
Next week, after being out of power for eight years, the baby Boomer generation will come roaring back and put a president from their cohort in Power. While millennial Republicans had Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz to associate with, the millennial Democrats has only Grandpa Bernie Sanders and nostalgia. The two year drama will finally draw to a close next week and end my obsession with these elections. Obsessive preoccupation with polls is a ritual that propels laughable coverage of any elections. Too many states in USA like to be called the Barometer of the presidential elections. States like Ohio make a fuss about their ability to correctly vote for the US president. There are even fraud analyses and articles which torture the data enough to show why their state is the true barometer.
-The Audacity of Hope
But the true bell-weather state seems to be New Mexico with a 92% success rate. Startlingly, the seat of power Washington DC has no idea what the rest of nation wants. The Rates for Mississippi and Alabama Partly explain their backwardness.New York has the best record among the 13 founding states.
Full table for those interested below.data from Wikipedia. I have looked at all elections.
State | Correct | Elections | Accuracy |
New Mexico | 24 | 26 | 92% |
Illinois | 41 | 49 | 84% |
Ohio | 44 | 53 | 83% |
California | 34 | 41 | 83% |
New York | 47 | 57 | 82% |
Nevada | 31 | 38 | 82% |
Pennsylvania | 46 | 57 | 81% |
Arizona | 20 | 26 | 77% |
Wisconsin | 32 | 42 | 76% |
New Hampshire | 43 | 57 | 75% |
Minnesota | 29 | 39 | 74% |
Oregon | 29 | 39 | 74% |
Montana | 23 | 31 | 74% |
Indiana | 37 | 50 | 74% |
Iowa | 31 | 42 | 74% |
West Virginia | 28 | 38 | 74% |
Missouri | 36 | 49 | 73% |
Michigan | 33 | 45 | 73% |
Utah | 22 | 30 | 73% |
Florida | 30 | 41 | 73% |
New Jersey | 41 | 57 | 72% |
Colorado | 25 | 35 | 71% |
Rhode Island | 40 | 56 | 71% |
Idaho | 22 | 31 | 71% |
Washington | 22 | 31 | 71% |
Wyoming | 22 | 31 | 71% |
Oklahoma | 19 | 27 | 70% |
Connecticut | 39 | 57 | 68% |
Kansas | 26 | 38 | 68% |
North Dakota | 21 | 31 | 68% |
Maine | 33 | 49 | 67% |
North Carolina | 37 | 55 | 67% |
Virginia | 37 | 55 | 67% |
Maryland | 38 | 57 | 67% |
Massachusetts | 38 | 57 | 67% |
Tennessee | 36 | 54 | 67% |
Nebraska | 24 | 37 | 65% |
Hawaii | 9 | 14 | 64% |
Vermont | 36 | 56 | 64% |
Louisiana | 32 | 50 | 64% |
Delaware | 36 | 57 | 63% |
Kentucky | 35 | 56 | 63% |
Arkansas | 26 | 44 | 59% |
South Dakota | 18 | 31 | 58% |
Texas | 23 | 40 | 58% |
Alaska | 8 | 14 | 57% |
Georgia | 32 | 56 | 57% |
South Carolina | 32 | 56 | 57% |
Mississippi | 24 | 47 | 51% |
Alabama | 24 | 48 | 50% |
D.C. | 6 | 13 | 46% |
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