Post fall classic musings on MLB now
The world series finished yesterday. The best Red Sox team of all time (arguably) won the world series. Price’s Changeup overcame Kershaw’s Slider. For such a momentous occasion, it was mostly dis-interesting. There were a number of good teams this year, in part because there were a number of very bad teams. As the series of box-plots below of win records of MLB teams since the last expansion shows;
Among those good teams, the Red Sox got lost in the crowd, as some attention would’ve gone to the Yankees, and the Astros, and so on and so forth. Still, the Red Sox were legitimately terrific, and obviously, they strengthened their case all the more in October. With too many tanking from the beginning of the season, this was a playoff that felt like a coronation parade. Added to it was the slow pace of play which bored everyone. Home Runs deciding games also does not help interest as excitement does not build up slowly.
Six new managers were hired for the 2018 MLB season, five of whom had no managerial experience whatsoever. It is tough to separate a manager’s contributions from a passel of other factors. Bill james came out with a method involving Pythagorean Wins and losses to estimate a manager's worth. For one, a team’s effectiveness in clustering hits together on offense and scattering them while pitching has been found to be pretty much completely random. Thus,“cluster luck” can skew a team’s record significantly, even after accounting for runs scored and runs allowed totals. Managers are hired for Player development, In-game changes, knowing who is the "hot-hand" etc which are not quantifiable.
The bigger fact is that MLB managements prefer lower-profile individuals. Those types appeal to front offices because they're flexible with (obedient about) their in-game strategical decisions. They're more likely to form continuity with new-age front offices that put great stock into control. In the name of analytics, they want to determine daily lineups and scouting reports that are handed out to players and coaches. That paid off in Boston, where Alex Cora has taken the Red Sox to their best performance. More importantly, Red Sox has been winning World Series since the new ownership because they take the hints from the analytics department and use that information to arrive at their decisions. Their use of analytics is as a part of the decision making. It is not a smokescreen as used by the Oakland team to hide their cheap shenanigans.
Having said that, there are indeed managers who should move on from their posts. With Jays, and twins announcing a new manager during the world series, Rangers and Orioles are the only positions open now.
Managers who need to stop managing
The list starts with some Hall of fame candidates whose legacy I do not want spoiled, It then goes to those who are riding past achievements.
- The tanking epidemic is real and has been there since 2015 season.
- It is practiced by more than a quarter of MLB teams
- Other teams are not doing anything about it like in Social Media where the good actors do not confront the bad actors
Among those good teams, the Red Sox got lost in the crowd, as some attention would’ve gone to the Yankees, and the Astros, and so on and so forth. Still, the Red Sox were legitimately terrific, and obviously, they strengthened their case all the more in October. With too many tanking from the beginning of the season, this was a playoff that felt like a coronation parade. Added to it was the slow pace of play which bored everyone. Home Runs deciding games also does not help interest as excitement does not build up slowly.
Six new managers were hired for the 2018 MLB season, five of whom had no managerial experience whatsoever. It is tough to separate a manager’s contributions from a passel of other factors. Bill james came out with a method involving Pythagorean Wins and losses to estimate a manager's worth. For one, a team’s effectiveness in clustering hits together on offense and scattering them while pitching has been found to be pretty much completely random. Thus,“cluster luck” can skew a team’s record significantly, even after accounting for runs scored and runs allowed totals. Managers are hired for Player development, In-game changes, knowing who is the "hot-hand" etc which are not quantifiable.
The bigger fact is that MLB managements prefer lower-profile individuals. Those types appeal to front offices because they're flexible with (obedient about) their in-game strategical decisions. They're more likely to form continuity with new-age front offices that put great stock into control. In the name of analytics, they want to determine daily lineups and scouting reports that are handed out to players and coaches. That paid off in Boston, where Alex Cora has taken the Red Sox to their best performance. More importantly, Red Sox has been winning World Series since the new ownership because they take the hints from the analytics department and use that information to arrive at their decisions. Their use of analytics is as a part of the decision making. It is not a smokescreen as used by the Oakland team to hide their cheap shenanigans.
Managers who need to stop managing
The list starts with some Hall of fame candidates whose legacy I do not want spoiled, It then goes to those who are riding past achievements.
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Don't spoil your legacy
- Bruce Bochy: Bruce Bochy is entering the final year of his contract in orange and black.While the Giants have experienced plenty of success under the potential Hall of Fame manager, this should be Bochy’s last season Bochy hasn’t gotten the team to produce since 2016. The front office has changed everyone but Bochy. Newly-hired president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi faces a tall order in streamlining an expensive, veteran-heavy, underachieving roster and helping guide the Giants back to contention. brings more of an analytically-minded approach to the Giants’ more traditionally “old-school” front office. Bruce Bochy has the chance to go out on his own terms and announcing retirement this year. That way, he will avoid becoming like the next guy on the list who is in danger of spoiling his Legacy.
- Mike Scioscia Scioscia’s exit ended a tenure of 19 consecutive seasons with the same team. Scioscia is known for his trips to the mound and most of those trips being of the bad kind. He may have a deep passion for this game. He may love managing. It is a sentiment that will affect his legacy if he tries to Manage somewhere else. It is really a reflection of his managerial talent and that he has overstayed that two managers from managing tree from his coaching staff are also in this list. It is for the sake of his legacy that Mike Scioscia should retire.
- Buck Showalter Showalter would be remembered as the manager who was responsible for one of the most unpleasant seasons in baseball history, a campaign in which the Orioles lost a franchise-record games. In 2018, he was sticking with some of his guys even as they were clearly hurting this year’s team. On the flipside, in 2012, when they won 93 games during the regular season, it was the first of three post-season appearances in five years under Showalter, a run of success Baltimore hadn't seen since the early 1970s under the legendary Earl Weaver. Unlike Regular season, post-season demand higher customization one has to do. A manager's is under more scrutiny while he plays the game of chess with his opposite manager. On multiple teams, Showalter has been found wanting in this aspect. He is the guy who botched the 2016 wild-card game by opting to use Ubaldo Jimenez instead of Zach Britton -- the same Zach Britton who had just finished what was arguably the most dominant season by an Orioles reliever in major league history -- when it counted most.
- Joe Maddon
- Terry Francona Before the 2018 season, everyone knew that Indians will win AL central. Three of the five teams had surrendered and focused on draft picks. Twins were deadline sellers. Still, what did the Indians manage? They had less wins than either Wildcard teams and just one more win than Rays; the third placed team in the East. Indians fans may be growing impatient with the lack of titles in Cleveland. With LeBron gone again, fans are looking up to Baseball and are frustrated with Terry Francona after the way the season ended. the 37-year-old wunderkind whom the Phillies tabbed as manager in 1997, Francona cemented his place in baseball lore by leading the Red Sox to the 2004 World Series title (a feat he repeated in 2007), and narrowly missed another legendary milestone when his upstart Indians fell to the Cubs in seven games in 2016. However, anyone trying to justify his performance in 2018 where they got swept by the Astros should be ashamed of themselves. He is resting on his achievements now.
- Clint Hurdle The frugal Pirates had a splashy trade deadline with some playoff aspirations. The season however ended with the third consecutive year where they underperformed. Hurdle seems to be on his way out the way he puts together lineups juggled the lineup too much. The cheap Pirates are okay with him pulling $3 million per season. His main job security visibly is that Bob Nutting would still be on the hook for the remaining three years of his contract. He certainly isn’t going to pay Hurdle $3 million a season to sit at home. The underlying fact is that he got this contract after two losing seasons in 2016 and 2017 and seven bad seasons with only one legitimate playoff appearance. How did he get the contract? The same reason how he is still managing after all these years. Pittsburgh has been a great sports town even with all the economic problems going on in the region due to support of fans. Pirates fans deserve so much better than this front office.
- Ned Yost Over the years, Ned Yost has acquired the reputation of being extremely passive and defiantly old-school, both of which can infuriate fans. It plays out on the field in various ways. Google "Yost Philosophy" and you will find enough people criticizing him for his stubbornness. Examples being bullpen moves for reasons like “the sixth inning belongs to” one reliever or other. He has almost single-handedly made the term "old school manager" negative. He's acknowledged in the past that he's unlikely to see the Royals' rebuild all the way through, and this would seem to be a sensible time for him to move into a figurehead role with the organization.
- Ron Gardenhire
- Bud Black Scioscia's pitching coach Bud Black is known for the good relationships he develops and his baseball knowledge. A former pitcher himself, he is legendary for the way he develops pitching. The problem is that he is bad in the non-pitching aspects of managing. He got an awesome pitching performance out of his team in Coors field! and took them to playoffs. He then promptly followed it up by getting swept. In playoffs this year, his Kryptonite got him. Frequently, he has demonstrated that he cannot inspire the team up, he cannot seem to right the ship when things go bad. His lineup decisions are puzzling. He should work fully as pitching coach or in Player development as a pitcher specialist.
When Scioscia's bench coach on the Angels 2002 World Series championship team took over Rick Renteria's job, he became one of the highest paid Managers with a five-year, $25 million pact. While arguably a Cubs legend for breaking the 108 year drought, Joe knew the talent assembled in Chicago and the expectations. Joe Maddon was not be offered a contract extension, as he enters the final year. The best manager in the brief history of the Rays has not fulfilled the expatiations from Cubs. Unlike with the Rays , he is full on in Spotlight. Cubs matches are the important one circled in opponent team calendars. He has two World Series appearances and one championship. He does not seem interested in the managerial tasks like talking and inspiring players. He would make a good Front office guy.
Managers who have clearly shown that they they are Bad
Gardenhire came aboard fully knowing the rebuilding situation he was getting into. His job was to connect with the young players on the team get improved and consistent performance from them. Joe Jimenez was the only improved player this year. 2018 was a completely lost year for the Tigers, and it wouldn’t hurt if they go with a different manager. Given that he is focused so much on minor leagues compared to the Major league team, he should be moved to Player development. Ron can take over from Dave Littlefield who been ineffective since he was hired in August 2015.
Managers who need the Chance.
Most of the bad managers above prevent good mangers from getting an opportunity. I have divided them into Rebuilding and Winning managers. The rebuilding ones are for teams to tank and develop players. The winning managers are for taking well assembled teams and take them deep in playoffs. I have sorted them by most deserving of another managerial assignment. You will also notice that the winning managers generally end up on the top.
Most of the bad managers above prevent good mangers from getting an opportunity. I have divided them into Rebuilding and Winning managers. The rebuilding ones are for teams to tank and develop players. The winning managers are for taking well assembled teams and take them deep in playoffs. I have sorted them by most deserving of another managerial assignment. You will also notice that the winning managers generally end up on the top.
- Ozzie Guillen: Winning
- Fredi Gonzalez: Winning The scapegoat for the failures of Atlanta's previous front Office, He is another manager who is putting out PR about his willingness to his evolve his views and embrace the analytical trends.
- John Farrell: Winning A scout and advisor with Reds alongwith being an ESPN in-studio analyst and last season. The 56-year-old former big league pitcher became the first manager in Red Sox history to win back-to-back AL East titles. There are a lot of teams out there that would love the level of failure that he has had so far.
- Mike Matheny: Winning. The only reason the Orioles or Rangers have not snapped him up is because they are rebuilding.
- Manny Acta: Rebuilding. Speaking of rebuilding, Orioles and Acta are a perfect fit. He worked with Cleveland when they were analytics pioneers and rebuilding. He should gel well with both management and Players.
- Robin Ventura: Rebuilding This year marked the 25th anniversary of the brawl with Nolan Ryan. and is highly regarded by team officials for his leadership skills. The years since his firing from White sox have clearly surfaced his achievements working with an incompetent front office.
Interim manager:
John Gibbons: Telecom companies like Rogers control Professional Sports in Toronto and are the cause of the pathetic sports performance from that city. Even after Gibbons was fired, he was given a commemorative day by Toronto. Baseball spectators like him. He is the perfect interim manager. He has old-school flair, some acceptance of analytics and is generally likeable.
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